Jared Walczak, a national property tax expert with Walczak Policy Consulting, released a statewide analysis examining how Amendment 3, a constitutional amendment on this November’s ballot, could affect property taxes on rental homes across Florida. The analysis puts a dollar figure on how much rents could rise if Amendment 3 passes and local governments solely raise property tax rates to make up for the lost revenue.

The full report, including a county-by-county breakdown, is available here.

An interactive map showing potential impacts by county is available here.

Background

If Amendment 3 passes, statewide non-school property tax collections are projected to fall by 20–23%, an estimated $8.7 billion annually by 2029, rising to nearly $11.8 billion by 2032. In exchange, homeowners could see their annual property taxes drop by roughly $1,000 to $3,000, depending on the jurisdiction.

To offset that loss, local governments would have three options: reduce spending, raise property tax rates, or raise other taxes and fees. Most are likely to rely on some combination of the three.

Walczak’s analysis isolates one scenario: what could happen to rental housing costs if local governments cover the full revenue loss through property tax rate increases alone. It does not predict how rents will actually change in any given county, but it illustrates one plausible path Amendment 3 could set in motion.

Key Findings

• Amendment 3 lowers property taxes for homeowners and could shift the cost to renters. If local governments raise property tax rates to cover the difference, the average Florida apartment unit’s annual property tax bill could go up $406 (14.8%) in 2028, and $554 (15.75%) by 2031. For a typical 200-unit apartment community, that’s about $81,000 more in property taxes each year in 2028, rising to about $109,000 by 2031.
• Renters of single-family homes could be hit harder: an average annual increase of $1,081 (14.6%) in 2028, rising to $1,471 (15.4%) by 2031. About one in four of Florida’s renters live in a single-family home.
• Renters would likely end up paying most of this through higher rent. Research on past tax increases shows landlords typically pass at least 60% of the cost on to tenants, and often nearly all of it over time. A $400 tax increase on an apartment could mean about $240 more in rent per year; for a Tampa single-family rental, about $780 more.
• Statewide, the shift could total $1.61 billion in added property taxes on rental homes in 2028, growing to $2.19 billion by 2031.
• The impacts would vary by local government. In Tampa, average yearly property taxes could rise $758 per apartment and $1,329 per single-family rental in 2028. Other areas could see increases as well: Miami-Dade (+$291 per apartment), Orlando (+$358), Fort Lauderdale (+$504), and Pinellas (+$549).
• Impacts to affordable housing. Many income- and rent-restricted rental homes don’t qualify for property tax exemptions, so owners often can’t pass all cost increases on to residents — which can limit their ability to make repairs and capital improvements. Most of Florida’s affordable rental homes aren’t part of a formal affordable housing program at all; they’re just naturally lower-priced, and those could see rent increases as well.
• New home and apartment building could slow as local governments respond differently and on different timelines, creating uncertainty for builders about future tax rates, fees, and services.

More than 1.7 million renter households in Florida are already spending over 30% of their income on housing. This analysis is intended to help inform voters and housing professionals about the potential impacts to rental housing in Florida if Amendment 3 passes.

For questions, contact Kody Glazer at glazer@flhousing.org.

This analysis was commissioned in partnership with the Florida Housing Coalition, Florida Apartment Association, Miami Homes for All, and the Florida Policy Project.